June 8, 2012
By Nevin Adams, EBRI
An acquaintance of mine once remarked, “you can’t solve a savings problem with investment returns.” Yet, participants frequently focus on the returns of their retirement savings investments.
Consider that during the month of May, major stock indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were off 6 percent. But, according to an EBRI analysis, the estimated average 401(k) account balance¹ was down less than 3 percent during that same month, both due to the inflow of ongoing contributions and more diversified portfolio holdings.
That determination is based on estimates from the EBRI/ICI Participant-Directed Retirement Plan Data Collection Project—the largest, most representative repository of information about individual 401(k) plan participant accounts. In fact, as of December 31, 2010, the EBRI/ICI database included statistical information on about 23.4 million 401(k) plan participants, in nearly 65,000 employer-sponsored 401(k) plans, representing $1.414 trillion in assets.
Using that database, which includes demographic, contribution, asset allocation, and loan and withdrawal activity information for millions of participants, EBRI has produced estimates of the cumulative changes in account balances—both as a result of contributions and investment returns— for several combinations of participant age and tenure.
While the estimated monthly movements² are interesting, they aren’t nearly as important as the perspective the database offers on long-term trends. For example, while the financial crisis of 2008 had a significant impact on retirement savings balances, as of June 5, 2012, more than 94 percent of the consistent participants in the database are estimated to have balances higher than they did at the pre-recession market peak (October 9, 2007).
During election cycles, voters are frequently asked “are you better off now than you were four years ago?” The answer, at least when it comes to consistent participants and their retirement savings accumulations, would seem to be “yes.”
¹ For “consistent” participants, that is, participants assumed to be in the 401(k) plan at the beginning and end of the specific reporting period.
² EBRI updates the change in 401(k) balances each month at http://www.ebri.org/index.cfm?fa=401kbalances . Here you will find both a listing of “Cumulative Change,” a projected cumulative percentage change in account balances for consistent participants since the last annual update of the database. Additionally, the monthly rate of change in average account balances is presented for those same individuals. For assistance on interpreting these results, please contact Jack VanDerhei at firstname.lastname@example.org