Review Cause

By Nevin Adams, EBRI

AdamsWhen I was still a child, my parents owned a 1958 VW Beetle. I was pretty young, so I don’t remember much about that car, other than the color, and what struck me, even as a child, as the “odd” reversal of the trunk and engine. One thing I do remember is that it didn’t have a gas gauge. Instead, there was a reserve tank switch, and when the engine started sputtering, you opened the valve, and got enough “extra” gas to get to a gas station.

The trick was that you had to remember to leave that reserve open when you filled up―if you didn’t, well then, you had no reserve. As you might expect, the reason I remember that relatively obscure feature to this day is a trip that was “interrupted” when my family discovered the hard way that my father had forgotten to reset the reserve switch.

Retirement planning typically focuses on looking to ensure that your post-retirement income sources are adequate to replicate some percentage of your preretirement income level. Underlying that approach is the assumption that individuals incur roughly the same kinds of expenses in retirement, although the amount, and proportionate share, of those expenses can certainly shift, particularly in areas such as health care. Indeed, while EBRI’s Retirement Security Projection Model®  (RSPM) and Retirement Readiness Rating have long incorporated the uninsured costs of post-retirement health care and long-term care, a few other  retirement projection models only recently acknowledge post-retirement health care costs as a discrete retirement savings need.

As a recent EBRI Notes article[1] explains, individuals should be concerned about saving for health insurance premiums and out-of-pocket expenses in retirement for a number of reasons. Medicare generally covers only about 60 percent of the cost of health care services for Medicare beneficiaries ages 65 and older, while out-of-pocket spending accounts for 12 percent.[2] The percentage of private-sector establishments offering retiree health benefits has been falling, and where benefits are offered, they are becoming less generous, even in the public sector.

While EBRI’s analysis indicates that savings targets for post-retirement health expenses (other than nursing home and home health care costs) declined between 6 percent and 11 percent between 2012 and 2013 for a person or couple age 65, there are a wide variety of possible outcomes, depending not only on the age at which an individual retires, but also the length of life after retirement, the availability and source of health insurance coverage after retirement to supplement Medicare, their health status and out-of-pocket expenses, the rate at which health care costs increase, the impact of interest rates and other rates of return on investments, as well as possible changes in public policy―not to mention the targeted probability of success of those targets.

Remember that while it is possible to come up with a single number that individuals can use to set retirement savings goals, a single number based on averages will be wrong for the vast majority of the population.

But, as with that old VW Beetle, those who set savings targets that fail to set aside any reserve for the eventuality might well wind up short of their destination.

Notes


[1] The EBRI Notes article, “Amount of Savings Needed for Health Expenses for People Eligible for Medicare: More Rare Good News” is online here.

[2] Note that many individuals will need more than the amounts cited in this report because this particular analysis does not factor in the savings needed to cover long-term care expenses, nor does it take into account the fact that many individuals retire prior to becoming eligible for Medicare. However, some workers will need to save less than what is reported if they choose to work during retirement, thereby postponing enrollment in Medicare Parts B and D if they receive health benefits as active workers.

Some Rare Good News: Retiree Health Savings Needs Slip

Projections for how much elderly Americans need to save for out-of-pocket health care in retirement have edged lower, due to a provision the federal health reform law that will cover more of their prescription drug costs, according to a new report by EBRI.

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) reduces cost sharing in the Medicare Part D “donut hole” to 25 percent by 2020. This year-to-year reduction in coinsurance will continue to reduce savings needed for health care expenses in retirement, all else equal, for individuals with the highest prescription drug use, EBRI reports.

The Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003 (MMA) added outpatient prescription drugs (Part D) as an optional benefit. When the program was originally enacted, it included a controversial feature: a coverage gap, more commonly known as the “donut hole.” PPACA included provisions to reduce (but not eliminate) this coverage gap.

Medicare generally covers only about 60 percent of the cost of health care services (not including long-term care) for Medicare beneficiaries ages 65 and older, while out-of-pocket spending accounts for 13 percent (see figure, below).

The EBRI analysis finds 1–2 percent reductions in needed savings among individuals with median (mid-point, half above and half below) drug use and 4–5 percent reductions in needed savings among individuals at the 90th percentile in drug use since its last analysis in 2011.

The full report, “Savings Needed for Health Expenses for People Eligible for Medicare: Some Rare Good News,” is published in the October EBRI Notes, online at www.ebri.org

The press release is online here.

The Impact on the Uninsured of the Baby Boom Generation Reaching Age 65

By Paul Fronstin, EBRI

This week the Census Bureau released its annual report on income, poverty and the uninsured. The number of uninsured increases naturally because of population growth even when the percentage declines, but in 2011 both the percentage of the population and the number uninsured declined: Between 2010 and 2011, the percentage uninsured fell from 16.3 percent to 15.7 percent and the number fell from 50 million to 48.6 million. In fact, 2011 was only one of four years since 1994 that saw a decline in the percentage uninsured.

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Why did both those measures fall in 2011?

Some segments of the population did see an increase in employment-based coverage, notably young adults taking advantage of the adult dependent mandate in the Affordable Care Act (ACA), but these gains were offset by other loses (such as the decline in coverage from one’s own job for workers of all ages), negating any impact on the aggregate decline in the uninsured. The percentage of the population with employment-based health benefits stood at 55.1 percent in 2011, compared with 55.3 percent the previous year, so it would not account for the decline in the uninsured.

There was growth in the number of people covered by Medicaid and SCHIP (the State Children’s Health Insurance Program). In 2011, 16.5 percent of the population had Medicaid or SCHIP, up from 15.8 percent in 2010. So this increase accounted for some of the decline in the uninsured.

Overall, the decline in uninsured was largely associated with a rise in the share of people covered by government-sponsored health plans, increasing to 32.2 percent in 2011 from 31.2 percent in 2010.

Coincident with this trend, it’s worth noting that the leading edge of the Baby Boom generation (the cohort of individuals born between 1946‒1964) turned 65 in 2011, meaning that this generation is finally reaching Medicare eligibility.

Statistically, 65-year-olds have now reached 1 percent of the total U.S. population. While not yet a large number, it is the largest in recent history, driving up Medicare enrollments, and perhaps marking the cusp of a significant demographic shift in insurance trends.

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How Repealing PPACA Would Affect Needed Savings for Health Care

The August 2011 EBRI Notes contains an aricle on “The Impact of Repealing PPACA on Savings Needed for Health Expenses for Persons Eligible for Medicare.”

New modeling by EBRI finds that Medicare beneficiaries with high levels of prescription drug use would have to save 30-40 percent more than they currently are to pay for higher drug costs if President Obama’s health reform law is repealed.

Medicare beneficiaries with median prescription drug costs would not see any change in their savings targets, EBRI’s analysis finds.

EBRI takes no position on whether or not the law should be repealed; rather, its analysis is designed to measure which groups would be affected and provide estimates of additional savings needed by those who would be affected if it was

The Notes press release is online here.

The full report is online here.