Work “Forces”

Nevin AdamsBy Nevin Adams, EBRI

A couple of years ago, my wife and I sat down with an advisor to revisit our financial plan.  Having gathered all the requisite information regarding assets, debt, insurance, and retirement savings, he turned to me and asked how long I planned to work.

Being in a profession that I not only enjoy, but one relatively unbounded by physical constraints; having some appreciation for the various financial trade-offs associated with the decision to retire, yet desirous of the ability to have more leisure time with my family—conscious of the fact that I have made a career studying and writing about such decisions—I paused to reflect….

And then my wife, with a smile on her face, laughed and said, “Oh, he’s going to work forever!”

Well, that wasn’t the answer I had in mind, but apparently I’m not the only one rethinking retirement.  In 1991, just 11 percent of workers expected to retire after age 65, according to the Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS)[i]. Twenty-three years later, in 2014, 33 percent of workers report that they expect to retire after age 65, and 10 percent don’t plan to retire at all. At the same time, the percentage of workers expecting to retire before age 65 has decreased, from 50 percent in 1991 to 27 percent.  Those expectations notwithstanding, the median (midpoint) age at which workers expect to retire has remained stable at 65 for most of the 24-year history of the RCS.

Moreover, a recent EBRI Notes article[ii] confirms that the labor-force participation rate for those ages 55 and older rose throughout the 1990s and into the 2000s when it began to level off, but with a small increase following the 2007-2008 economic downturn.  While for those ages 55-64 the upward trend was driven almost exclusively by the increased labor-force participation of women, among those age 65 or older, the rate increased for both males and females over that period.

The report notes, however, that the labor-force participation rates of younger workers increased when those of older workers declined or remained low during the late 1970s to the early 1990s, but as the labor-force participation rates of younger workers began to decline in the late 1990s, the rates for the older workers continuously increased – suggesting either that older workers filled the void left by younger workers’ lower participation, or that the higher representation in the workforce by older workers served to limit the opportunities for younger workers, either directly or perhaps by discouraging them from pursuing employment.

As the EBRI report notes, this upward trend in labor-force participation by older workers is perhaps related to workers’ desire for continued access to employment-based health insurance, to provide some additional years of employment to accumulate savings and/or pay down debt, or maybe even simply because they want to work.

Whatever their motivation(s), these trends highlight a number of key concerns for employers and policy makers: Will workers who want—or need—to increase their financial resources by working longer be able to find jobs?  How might workforce management (and health care costs) be affected by those decisions?  What could delayed workforce entry mean to the retirement savings accumulations of younger workers?

Ultimately, of course, and as the trends tracked and analyzed by EBRI have long indicated, the road through retirement is often influenced by the paths we take to retirement—and when, how, and if we are able to make the transition.

  • Notes

[i] See “The 2014 Retirement Confidence Survey: Confidence Rebounds—for Those With Retirement Plans.”

[ii] The April EBRI Notes article, “Labor-force Participation Rates of the Population Ages 55 and Older, 2013,” is available online here.

 

Sooner or Later?

By Nevin Adams, EBRI

AdamsLast week more than a hundred professionals gathered at the Fall 2013 ASEC Partners’ Meeting to discuss the obstacles to, and possible solutions for, retirement savings.  National Save for Retirement Week is upon us, and America Saves Week will be here before we know it.  So too, retirement – which seems far away to many, and IS far away for some – often seems to be a far off goal, something that can wait for another day, a more “convenient” time, when we have more free time, and perhaps fewer financial demands.

Indeed, it’s easy, in the normal press of life, to put off thinking about retirement, much less thinking about saving for a period of life many can hardly imagine. We all know we should do it—but some figure that it will take more time and energy than they can afford just now, some assume the process will provide a depressing, perhaps even insurmountable target, and others  – well many don’t even know how to get started.

Here are six reasons why you—or those you care about—should save – and specifically save for retirement – now:

Because you don’t want to work forever.

No matter how much you love your job – or love your job today – that might not always be the case, and you might want the flexibility to make a change on your terms; if not to retire, to cut back on your hours, or maybe even to pursue other interests.  The sooner you’ve made those financial preparations, the sooner that decision can be your choice, rather than one forced upon you.

Because living in retirement isn’t free – and it might cost more than you think.

Many people assume that expenses will go down in retirement, and for some they may.  On the other hand, retirement often brings with it changes in how we spend, and on what – and that’s not necessarily less.  For example, research by the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) has found that health-related expenses are the second-largest component in the budget of older Americans, and a component that steadily increases with age.  Note also that long-term care (LTC) insurance is a growing area of concern for retirees and, according to government estimates, 12 million older Americans will need LTC by 2020. However, in most cases LTC is not covered by Medicare, and this care is expensive and can be indefinitely long or even permanent.

Because you may not be able to work as long as you think.

The Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS) has, over its 23 year history, consistently found that a large percentage of retirees leave the work force earlier than planned—47 percent in the 2013 RCS, in fact—and many retirees who retired earlier than planned cite negative reasons for doing so, including health problems or disabilities (55 percent); changes at their companies, such as downsizing or closure (20 percent); having to care for spouses or other family members (23 percent).

Some retirees do mention positive reasons for retiring early, such as being able to afford an earlier retirement (32 percent) or wanting to do something else (19 percent), but just 7 percent offer only positive reasons.

Because working longer may not be enough.

One of the more recent alternatives proposed is that of continuing to work longer which, if possible, would serve to both postpone the depletion of retirement income resources, and to provide additional time to save.  As noted above, this assumption might not prove to be a viable option for all, and even for those who can and do, EBRI research has found that even working until 70 by itself may not be sufficient for some individuals.

Because you don’t know how long you will live.

People are living longer and the longer your life, the longer your retirement could last, particularly if, as noted above, it begins sooner than you planned. Retiring at age 65 today? How big a chance do you want to take of outliving your money in old age?

Because the sooner you start, the easier it will be.

What are you waiting for? Sooner or later, you know you need to.  And the later you start, the harder it can be.

A good place to start – any time –  is the BallparkE$timate,® and with the other materials available at www.choosetosave.org, as well as www.americasavesweek.org.

For more information on retirement saving and spending, see also:

Income Composition, Income Trends, and Income Shortfalls of Older Households

How Does Household Income Change in the Ten Years Around Age 65?

Spending Adjustments Made By Older Americans to Save Money

Expenditure Patterns of Older Americans, 2001-2009

Rely-Able?

By Nevin Adams, EBRI

Adams

Last week the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College provided an update on its National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI).¹ The impetus for the update was the triennial release of the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finance (SCF), published in June, reflecting information as of December 2010.

Now, many things have changed since 2007, and in the most recent iteration of the NRRI, the authors note five main changes: the replacement of households from the 2007 SCF with those from the 2010 SCF; the incorporation of 2010 data to predict financial and housing wealth at age 65; a change in the age groups (because a significant number of Baby Boomers have retired, according to the report authors); the impact of lower interest rates on the amounts provided by annuities; and changes in the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) rules that lowered the percentage of house value that borrowers could receive in the form of a reverse mortgage at any given interest rate.

And, when all those changes are taken into account, the CRR analysis concludes that, as of December 2010, anyway, the percentage of households (albeit those from a partially different cohort) at risk of being unable to maintain their pre-retirement standard of living in retirement increased by 9 percentage points² between 2007 and 2010 (from 44 percent at risk to 53 percent).

When the baseline for your analysis is updated only every three years, it’s certainly challenging to provide a current assessment of retirement readiness. In previous posts, we’ve covered the limitations of relying solely on the SCF data³and, to some extent, the apparent shortcomings of the NRRI (see “’Last’ Chances”), and retirement projection models, generally (see “’Generation’ Gaps”).

On the other hand, the impact of the decline in housing prices and the stock market were modeled by EBRI in February 2011 (see “A Post-Crisis Assessment of Retirement Income Adequacy for Baby Boomers and Gen Xers”), while the impact of the rising age for full Social Security benefits has been incorporated in EBRI’s Retirement Savings Projection Model (RSPM) since 2003. Moreover, EBRI has also included the potential impact of reverse mortgages in our model for nearly a decade now.

Meanwhile, as a recent EBRI report noted (see “Is Working to Age 70 Really the Answer for Retirement Income Adequacy?”), the NRRI not only assumes that everyone annuitizes at retirement, and continues to ignore the impact of long-term care and nursing home costs (or assumes that they are insured against by everyone), but it also seems to rely on an outdated perspective of 401(k)-plan designs and savings trends, essentially ignoring the impact of automatic enrollment, auto-escalation of contributions, and the diversification impact of qualified default investment alternatives.

It’s one thing to draw conclusions based on an extrapolation of information that, while dated, may be the most reliable available. It’s another altogether to rely on that result in one’s retirement planning, or the formulation of policies designed to facilitate good planning.

Notes

¹ The report, “The National Retirement Risk Index: An Update” is available online here.

² The report notes that, between 2007 and 2010, the NRRI jumped by 9 percentage points due to: the bursting of the housing bubble (4.5 percentage points); falling interest rates (2.2 percentage points); the ongoing rise in Social Security’s Full Retirement Age (1.6 percentage points); and continued low stock prices (0.8 percentage points).

³ As valuable as the SCF information is, it’s important to remember that it contains self-reported information from approximately 6,500 households in 2010, which is to say the results are what individuals told the surveying organizations on a range of household finance issues (typically over a 90-minute interviewing period); of those households, only about 2,100 had defined contribution (401(k)-type) retirement accounts. Also, the SCF does not necessarily include the same households from one survey period to the next. See “Facts and ‘Figures.’”

Workers Aging Into Retiree Health Changes

A growing number of workers are realizing they will not get retiree health care from their employer after they stop working, according to a new report by EBRI.

While earlier research found little impact from reductions in coverage on current retirees, EBRI finds that initial changes employers made to retiree health benefits affected future retirees as opposed to then-current retirees. Over time, more and more retirees have “aged into” those program changes, resulting in the greater impact found in more recent studies.

Paul Fronstin, head of health benefits research at EBRI, and co-author of the report, noted that for many years, despite the downward trend in retiree health coverage, many workers still thought they would receive the benefit.

“The data show that workers are still more likely to expect retiree health benefits than retirees are actually likely to have those benefits, but the expectations gap is closing,” Fronstin said. “By 2010, 32 percent of workers expected retiree health benefits, while only 25 percent of early retirees and 16 percent of Medicare-eligible retirees had them.”

The EBRI report, providing current data on trends in retiree health coverage, finds that while many employers no longer offer retiree health benefits, most that have continued to do so have made changes in the benefit package they offer: raising premiums that retirees are required to pay, tightening eligibility, limiting or reducing benefits, or some combination of these.

The full report, “Employment-Based Retiree Health Benefits: Trends in Access and Coverage, 1997‒2010,” is published in the October EBRI Issue Brief, online at www.ebri.org   The press release is online here. The full report is online here.

“Better” Pill?

By Nevin Adams, EBRI

Adams

As a growing number of Americans near and enter retirement, concerns about the cost of post-retirement health care expenses loom larger. In fact, worker confidence about their ability to pay for medical expenses after retirement was just half what they expressed about their ability to pay for basic retirement expenses (see EBRI’s 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey).

Little wonder, since a recent EBRI Issue Brief noted that health-related expenses are not only the second-largest component in the budget of older Americans, they are the only component which steadily increases with age (see “Expenditure Patterns of Older Americans, 2001‒2009″).

Recognizing the potential financial impact, recent industry surveys have put a figure on the cost of post-retirement health care expense(1)—a figure above and beyond that of merely living in retirement. EBRI has gone to great lengths to model the major risks to retirement income adequacy—all the way back to the introduction of the EBRI Retirement Savings Projection Model (RSPM)® in 2003, including the incorporation of stochastic health care risks, such as nursing home and home health care costs.(2)

The RSPM has incorporated those expenses because, while those events will not be experienced by all retired households, or experienced to the same extent, when they do occur they can have catastrophic financial consequences for a household’s future retirement income adequacy. Many attempts to model retirement income adequacy either ignore this risk altogether, or just assume that all households purchase long-term care insurance at retirement—the former ignores a significant financial reality, while the latter glosses over reality.

Indeed, a major limitation of using income replacement rates as an accumulation target is that doing so generally fails to take into account these potentially catastrophic costs. How much difference does this make? A recently updated version of the RSPM(3) shows that, with the financial impacts of long-term care (nursing home and home health care costs) modeled, 68 percent of single male Gen Xers are projected to have no financial shortfall in retirement. On the other hand, if those long-term care costs are ignored, fewer than 1 in 10 would be projected to run short of funds in retirement. Similar results were found for single female and married Gen Xers.

The gaps are even more noticeable if you focus only on the situation of individuals with projected shortfalls in excess of $100,000. Ignoring long-term care costs, fewer than 1 percent of single male or married Gen Xers are projected to have shortfalls in excess of $100,000; however when you take those costs into account, approximately 18 percent of single males and 10 percent of families are now in this range, according to the model. The results are even more pronounced for single females, where ignoring those long-term care costs would indicate that fewer than 5 percent are modeled to experience shortfalls of more than $100,000, compared with approximately 34 percent when this reality is factored in.

It’s clear that those long-term care costs can be significant, and can have a dramatic impact on retirement security.

What’s less clear is why projections of retirement income needs and preparedness would continue to overlook them.

Notes

(1) For more information, see “The Impact of Repealing PPACA on Savings Needed for Health Expenses for Persons Eligible for Medicare,” EBRI Notes, August 2011, online here.

(2) The Retirement Security Projection Model® (RSPM) was developed in 2003, and in 2010 it was updated it to incorporate several significant changes, including the impacts of defined benefit plan freezes, automatic enrollment provisions for 401(k) plans, and the recent crises in the financial and housing markets. EBRI has recently updated RSPM to account for changes in financial and real estate market conditions as well as underlying demographic changes and changes in 401(k) participant behavior since January 1, 2010. For more information on the RSPM, check out the May 2012 EBRI Notes, “Retirement Income Adequacy for Boomers and Gen Xers: Evidence from the 2012 EBRI Retirement Security Projection Model,®” online here.

(3) More information about this update will be published in June 2012 EBRI Notes.

The 2012 RCS:Job Insecurity, Debt Weigh on Retirement Confidence, Savings

Americans’ confidence in their ability to afford a comfortable retirement is stagnant at historically low levels in the face of more immediate financial concerns about job uncertainty and debt, according to the 22nd annual Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS), the longest-running annual survey of its kind in the nation.

Asked to name the most pressing financial issue facing Americans today, both workers and retirees were more likely to identify job uncertainty. “Americans’ retirement confidence has plateaued at the lowest levels we’ve seen in two decades of conducting this survey,” said Jack VanDerhei, EBRI research director and co-author of the report.

Many workers report they have virtually no savings and investments, and workers’ expected age of retirement continues to rise, according to the RCS. However, one area in which Americans are saving for retirement is an employer-sponsored retirement savings plan, such as a 401(k). In fact, 81 percent of eligible workers (38 percent of all workers) say they contribute to such a plan with their current employer, according to the RCS.

These and other findings are contained in the 22nd annual RCS, conducted by the nonpartisan Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) and Mathew Greenwald & Associates, Inc. Full results of the 2012 RCS are published in the March 2012 EBRI Issue Brief, released today and online at www.ebri.org 

The EBRI website also has several RCS-related fact sheets, online here. 

The EBRI press release is online here.

EBRI/ICI Database in WSJ Retirement Article

The Dec. 6 Wall Street Journal uses data from the EBRI/ICI 401(k) database to illustrate its story on older workers who are approaching retirement without sufficient savings.

The article is titled, “Retiring in Five-10 Years? Uh-oh,” online here.

The EBRI/ICI-based databox used in the article (below) can be seen online here.

For instance, the grapic cites EBRI/ICI data showing that that the average 401(k) balance at year-end 2009 was $139,932 for workers in their 50s who had been in the plan for at least six years, and that 60 percent of 401(k) funds were invested in stocks at year-end 2009, through stock funds, balanced and target-date funds, and employer stock.

Wall Street Journal, Dec. 6, 2010