A Futurist Past

Salisbury

Salisbury

By Dallas Salisbury, EBRI

At EBRI’s 35th anniversary policy forum last December, it occurred to me that one of the youngest minds in the room happened to belong to the oldest panelist we had invited. Arnold Brown, 87 when he spoke at our forum, was nationally renowned not only for his insightful observations about the future, but his often surprising predictions of how the American labor force—and the employment-based benefits on which they depend—might change in response. How fitting that the forum panel on which he participated was titled “The Road to Tomorrow.”¹

So I was especially saddened to hear of his recent passing, shortly before his 88th birthday. He died surrounded by family, who described him as “brilliant, witty, wise and generous.” Having followed him and his work closely in my own career, I would agree with all that and more.

At a time when news reports warn of the “technological divide” between the young and the old in this country, Brown’s specialty was using hard data to help us understand why and how technology is changing our lives. Ironically for a tech-head, he started out as an English major (he graduated with honors from UCLA), before going on to serve in the Navy.

Arnold Brown

Arnold Brown

His big break on the national stage came when he was vice-chairman of the American Council of Life Insurers, where in 1969 he created ACLI’s Trend Analysis Program. This was the first, and considered among the best, “environmental scanning programs” that focused on long-range business planning and strategy. In 1977, he formed his own company, Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc., consultants in strategic planning and the management of change, where many of the biggest companies in the world would become clients. Not surprisingly, he served as board chairman of the World Future Society.

Much of his recent work focused on the trend toward “deskilled workers,” as more and more employers turn to computers, software, and robots to replace both blue-collar and white-collar human employees. He pointed out the many ripple effects that is already having and will have going forward, especially on state and federal social insurance programs that depend on taxes drawn from employment payrolls to survive. As workers are increasingly replaced by robots, Brown asked at the EBRI forum, “Should we require employers of robots to pay Social Security for them?”

Among his other thought-provoking, data-driven points at the EBRI forum:

  • The prolonged recession has masked what he called a “profound transformation of the economy” driven by automation, one that has to do with the very nature of work and jobs as the nation moves into the future. In 2012, he noted, approximately 85 percent of robots were purchased were for manufacturing purposes, and within the next few years 30 percent or more of robots will be for non-manufacturing, white-collar use.
  • Part-time, contract, and temporary workers are becoming the norm worldwide. Brown noted that in France in 2012, 82 percent of the new jobs created were temporary, and in Germany, what are referred to as “mini jobs” (low-paid, short-term jobs) now comprise 20 percent of all jobs in that economy. Another aspect of this job trend: Of the 16-to-25-year-old cohort not currently in school, barely a third (36 percent) have full-time jobs, and a major reason for this is new technology (such as 3-D printing), he said.
  • The upshot is that “The old model of the contract between employer and employee is increasingly obsolete,” Brown said at the EBRI forum, and “more and more, we will need a new model of what the relationship will be between the employer and the employee.” Over the next 35 years, he predicted, there will evolve “an entirely different, unprecedented relationship in the workplace between employers and employees, and what the consequences of that will be are really very profound in terms of what your businesses will be facing.”

Professionally, I greatly admired his acute use of data to make highly informed analysis about the future. Personally, I deeply admired how someone almost in his 90s lived so much in the future.

In Washington, there is naturally great attention given to how federal law (particularly tax law) and regulation affect business and employee benefits. But Arnold Brown’s focus was elsewhere: How the economy—and the underlying technology and skills that drive it—affect not only the business world, but society as a whole, faster and far more powerfully than even government policy.

His keen mind and often accurate predictions will be missed.

Notes

¹ The complete report on the EBRI 35th anniversary policy forum, “Employee Benefits: Today, Tomorrow, and Yesterday,” is published in the July EBRI Issue Brief and is online here.

EBRI Data in Cincinnati Enquirer 401(k) Article

The Jan. 9, 2011, Cincinnati Enquirer published a major series of stories on how local 401(k) plans fared during the 2008 recession. EBRI’s president and CEO, Dallas Salisbury, was an invited op-ed contributor to the series, commenting on how 401(k)s were designed and how they have performed.

The newspaper’s story is based on 2008 data (the latest available) from the federal government’s Form 5500 data that private-sector employers with retirement plans are required to file, so does not include results from 2009 and 2010.

The main feature, “401(k): What’s the New Normal?” is online here.

Salisbury’s op-ed, “401(k)s Have Assisted Millions of Retirees,” is online here.

EBRI’s Salisbury in EBN Podcast

Dallas Salisbury, EBRI CEO

Dallas Salisbury, EBRI president and CEO, is featured in a Dec. 10 podcast by Employee Benefit News (EBN). The topic is the value workers place on their workplace benefits, and the podcast is online here.

“America’s Retirement Problem: Should We Ditch 401(k) Plans?”

EBRI President Dallas Salisbury was a panelist on “Ideas in Action,” a new weekly public policy TV program that made its debut in the Washington, DC, market Sunday, Sept. 5. During the program, Salisbury laid out facts on how the employment-based 401(k) retirement system has performed for most American workers.

The full 30-minute program can be seen online here.

The Sept. 5 program, “America’s Retirement Problem: Should We Ditch 401(k) Plans?” examines the idea of replacing the current 401(k) retirement savings system with a government-guaranteed alternative retirement plan. Appearing on the program with Salisbury were Teresa Ghilarducci, professor at the New School for Social Research and the author of one such proposal, and Alex Brill of The American Enterprise Institute, who was chief economist to the House Ways and Means Committee.

“Ideas in Action” is a new program hosted by Jim Glassman, and will air on two public TV stations in Washington: WHUT Channel 32 and Maryland Public TV (MPT). Glassman describes the series as “geared to viewers who are looking for real insight into the big ideas and issues of our day…It’s intelligent TV for people interested in important ideas and their consequences.”

The program launched in February 2010 and is currently carried by more than 90 public television stations. Videos, transcripts, and extensive resources are available on the series’ website, online here.  Glassman was a weekly columnist for the Washington Post, former publisher of The New Republic, and former co-owner and editor of Roll Call, the newspaper about Capitol Hill. His TV credits include hosting the series TechnoPolitics for PBS, MoneyPolitics for WJLA (Washington DC’s ABC affiliate), and Capital Gang Sunday for CNN.