Halfway Honed

By Nevin Adams, EBRI

Adams

This week we published(1) the results of an update of EBRI’s Retirement Readiness Rating from the Retirement Security Projection Model® (RSPM). That model, which has been modified over the years to take into account certain structural and market changes,(2) projects that more than half (56 percent) of Boomers and Gen Xers will be able to retire with enough money to cover the cost of basic retirement needs as well as uninsured health care costs, including stochastic expenses from nursing home and home health care.(3)

On the other hand, that same model projects that about 44 percent won’t have “enough” to cover those expenses.

It’s worth noting that the trends are positive. Even after the toll of the 2008 financial crisis, the 2012 number of those at risk of running short is some 5−8 percentage points “better” than what was found in 2003. Moreover, the analysis is able to point to some important trends; eligibility for a workplace retirement plan remains a significant factor in reducing the risk of running short,(4) while the more recent broad-based advent of automatic enrollment plan designs makes it ever more likely that those eligible to participate—particularly lower-income workers—do so.

The research does point out that lower-income households are much more likely to be at risk for insufficient retirement income,(5) even though basic retirement expenses are modeled as a function of the household’s expected retirement income. In fact, the 2012 baseline ratings for Early Boomers range from a projection that 87 percent of the simulated lifepaths for the lowest-income households are at risk in retirement to only 13 percent of retired highest-income households.

Obviously, the reality of more than 4 in 10 Americans not having sufficient post-retirement wealth is of concern, though I find that many are pleasantly surprised at how high a percentage is expected to have sufficient assets. Indeed, whether one draws comfort from that finding likely depends on your expectations (and perhaps on which side of that line you think you might find yourself post-retirement).

Regardless of those expectations—and whether you find the picture to be one of a glass half full or half empty—the data give us all something to work with, and to work toward.

Notes

(1) EBRI Notes May 2012, “Retirement Income Adequacy for Boomers and Gen Xers: Evidence from the 2012 EBRI Retirement Security Projection Model,®” online here. 

(2) The Retirement Security Projection Model® (RSPM) was developed in 2003, and in 2010 it was updated it to incorporate several significant changes, including the impacts of defined benefit plan freezes, automatic enrollment provisions for 401(k) plans and the recent crises in the financial and housing markets. EBRI has recently updated RSPM for changes in financial and real estate market conditions as well as underlying demographic changes and changes in 401(k) participant behavior since January 1, 2010.

(3) A household’s simulated lifepath in retirement is considered to be at risk in the baseline version of the model if its aggregate resources in retirement are not sufficient to meet aggregate minimum retirement expenditures, defined as a combination of deterministic expenses from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (as a function of income) as well as some health insurance and out‐of‐pocket health‐related expenses, plus stochastic expenses from nursing home and home health care (at least until the point such expenses are picked up by Medicaid). The resources in retirement are assumed to consist of Social Security (status quo benefits for the baseline version of the simulation); account balances from defined contribution plans; individual retirement accounts (IRAs) and/or cash balance plans; annuities or lump-sum distributions from defined benefit plans; and net housing equity (in the form of a lump‐sum distribution at the point that other financial resources are exhausted). This version of the model is constructed to simulate “basic” retirement income adequacy; however, alternative versions of the model allow similar analysis for replacement rates and other thresholds.

(4) For an idea of just much of an impact plan eligibility makes, consider that, according to the simulation results, Gen Xers with no future years of eligibility would run short of money in retirement 60.7 percent of the time, whereas fewer than 1 in 5 (18.2 percent) of those with 20 or more years of future eligibility would run this risk.

(5) In addition to underlining the importance of automatic enrollment for the lowest income, this also underlines the importance of Social Security as a post-retirement income source for this group.

“Opportunity” Costs

By Nevin Adams, EBRI

Adams

When I was 16, my family moved from a small town in Southern Illinois to the suburbs of Chicago. It was a move that was to change my life in ways I could not have even imagined at the time. Had that move not occurred, I’d likely have wound up at a different university, might well have chosen a different major, and almost certainly would never have stumbled across the college internship doing pension accountings that has, many years later, brought me here today.

As you might expect, those possibilities were not obvious to me at the time of that move. But looking back, the reality is that that move greatly expanded the life choices—and thus, the opportunities—available to me at a particularly critical point in my life.

At EBRI’s Research Committee meeting this past week, Research Director Jack VanDerhei shared the updated findings of the EBRI Retirement Readiness Rating (RRR), TM which will be published later this month. The Retirement Readiness RatingsTM measure the percentage of simulated life paths in retirement that are at risk of inadequate retirement income. Simply stated, a household’s simulated lifepath in retirement is considered to be at‐risk in the baseline version of the model if its aggregate resources in retirement are not sufficient to cover their aggregate minimum retirement expenditures.(1) Previous research by EBRI has demonstrated that one of the most important factors contributing to retirement income adequacy for the Baby Boomers and Gen Xers is eligibility to participate in employment-based retirement plans.

In fact, the updated version or the RRR shows that the number of future years workers are eligible for participation in a defined contribution plan makes a tremendous difference in their at-risk ratings. For example, according to the simulation results, Gen Xers with no future years of eligibility would run short of money in retirement more than half (60.7 percent) of the time—a circumstance that would effect fewer than 1 in 5 of those in that demographic with 20 or more years of future eligibility.

And, bear in mind, that’s the kind of difference in outcome that results from mere ELIGIBILITY, thanks to their likely participation when a program is available, boosted by design enhancements like automatic enrollment and contribution acceleration.

My kids have the chance to learn from my past—to ask about the availability of a workplace retirement savings plan during their job interviews—and to take early advantage of that opportunity.

After all, it’s hard to take advantage of an opportunity you don’t have.

Notes

(1) In EBRI’s RRR,TM aggregate minimum retirement expenditures are defined as a combination of deterministic expenses from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (as a function of income and age) and some health insurance and out‐of‐pocket health‐related expenses, plus stochastic expenses from nursing home and home health care expenses (at least until the point such expenses are picked up by Medicaid). The resources in retirement will consist of Social Security (status quo benefits for the baseline version of the simulation), account balances from defined contribution plans, IRAs and/or cash balance plans, annuities or lump-sum distributions from defined benefit plans (unless the lump‐sum distribution scenario is chosen), and (in some cases) net housing equity (in the form of a lump‐sum distribution at the point that other financial resources are exhausted). This version of the model is constructed to simulate “basic” retirement income adequacy; however, alternative versions of the model allow similar analysis for replacement rates, standard‐of‐living, and other thresholds. More information on the RRR is available in the July 2010 EBRI Issue Brief online here.

EBRI’s Retirement Readiness Rating: Retirement Income Preparation and Future Prospects — July 13, 2010

EBRI today published ground-breaking research on retirement income adequacy, in the July 2010 EBRI Issue Brief.

With Americans living longer in retirement, the 2010 EBRI Retirement Readiness Rating™ shows dramatically high percentages of Americans—even in the upper-income categories—are likely to run short of money after 10 or 20 years of retirement. The new analysis by EBRI finds that almost two-thirds (64 percent) of Americans in the two lowest preretirement income levels will be running short after 10 years in retirement. However, the EBRI study also finds that after 20 years of retirement, almost a third (29 percent) of those in the next-to-highest income level will run short of money, as will more than 1 in 10 (13 percent) of those in the highest-income level.

The full report is online here. The press release is online here. A full list of media articles covering the Retirement Readiness Rating™  report is online here; major-media coverage worth noting is listed below:

The July 13 Wall Street Journal write-up of the EBRI report is online here.

Today Show interview (July 13) with Jean Chatzky on the EBRI report is online here.

Washington Post story (July 13) is online here. The Post’s “Color of Money” personal finance column based on the EBRI report  (July 15) is online here.

USAToday (Associated Press) story, July 14, is online here.

CNN Money report on the EBRI analysis (July 14)  is online here.

The EBRI Retirement Readiness Rating™ is based on EBRI’s Retirement Security Projection Model® (RSPM), which the institute first used in 2003 to evaluate national retirement income adequacy. The newest version of the model factors in many new retirement plan changes, such as auto-enrollment and auto-escalation of contributions in 401(k) plans, as well as updates for financial market performance and employee behavior (based on a database of 24 million 401(k) participants).

This is the first time a national retirement model has been able to project when different cohorts of Americans, based on age and income, are likely to exhaust their retirement savings. In addition, it finds that nearly half of early Baby Boomers—those on the verge of retirement, currently ages 56 to 62—are at risk of not having sufficient income to pay for basic retirement expenditures and uninsured medical expenses, and nearly the same fraction of “Generation Xers” are in a similar position.

Among other things, the analysis provides the most detailed estimates yet published of how age, relative level of preretirement income, and eligibility for participation in a defined contribution plan (principally a 401(k) plan) affect the prospects of running short of money in retirement. It also shows how long early boomers’ resources are likely to last in retirement.